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February 20th, 2009

Poll: Going nuclear


In August 1945 the only two nuclear bombs used in warfare were exploded. Since then there have been many nuclear explosions and many wars and battles, but the two have not combined again. There have been close calls, but so far the world has been fairly lucky.

I asked about this in 2006 but it seemed about time to ask again and see how much, if any, things have changed.

Poll #1352795 Gone fission

Who will break the nuclear peace, such as it is? That is, who will fire the *first* nuclear shot?

United States
3(14.3%)
Russia
0(0.0%)
United Kingdom
0(0.0%)
France
0(0.0%)
China
0(0.0%)
India
0(0.0%)
Pakistan
5(23.8%)
North Korea
2(9.5%)
Israel
0(0.0%)
Saudi Arabia
0(0.0%)
Japan
0(0.0%)
Another country
2(9.5%)
A terrorist organization
7(33.3%)
Nobody
2(9.5%)

The delivery system will be

a ballistic missile.
4(20.0%)
a cruise missile.
3(15.0%)
a manned aircraft.
2(10.0%)
a drone aircraft.
1(5.0%)
a ship or submarine leaving a bomb in or near a port.
1(5.0%)
a truck parked and left.
0(0.0%)
a suicide bomber.
6(30.0%)
something else.
1(5.0%)
non-existent.
2(10.0%)

The result will be:

A rapid nuclear escalation to the end of the world.
1(5.0%)
A rather large, but still limited, nuclear exchange.
4(20.0%)
A dozen or so nukes will be popped.
2(10.0%)
A nuke for a nuke, and it will end in single digits.
3(15.0%)
Just one nuke will be popped.
3(15.0%)
Just one nuke, and it will be a fizzle (still several tons yeild).
2(10.0%)
Just one nuke, but it will be a very embarrassing complete dud.
1(5.0%)
Nothing, as nobody will start popping nukes.
4(20.0%)

Continent on which the first big mushroom will grow:

Africa
0(0.0%)
Antarctica
1(4.5%)
Asia
11(50.0%)
Australia
0(0.0%)
Europe
1(4.5%)
North America
4(18.2%)
South America
0(0.0%)
Ocean burst - above, on, or in
2(9.1%)
Not gonna happen.
3(13.6%)


[Note to self: forgot Iran this time.]

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